Ilhan Omar Surprises Political Watchers by Passing on Senate Bid, Sparks Buzz Around Progressive Movement
With a Senate seat up for grabs in Minnesota following Senator Tina Smith’s announcement that she will not seek reelection in 2026, many political observers expected Rep. Ilhan Omar to jump into the race. But the progressive firebrand shocked insiders by declaring she would instead run for reelection to her House seat, choosing to remain in Minnesota’s Fifth Congressional District rather than seek statewide office.
Omar’s decision avoids the challenge of appealing to a broader state electorate and instead leans on her solid support base—especially among her Somali-American constituents in Minneapolis.
“At a time when our rights are under attack, it is more important than ever to fight back against the chaos, corruption, and callousness of the Trump Administration,” Omar said in a statement reported by MPR News. “I’m excited to announce my reelection campaign for Minnesota’s Fifth Congressional District to continue standing up for our rights in the face of rising authoritarianism.”
Emphasizing her grassroots strength, she added: “In Minnesota, we know that organized people will always beat organized money. Our campaign is ready to build on our momentum to drive record turnout in the midterms and help Democrats take back the majority.”
The Senate opening emerged after Tina Smith, who was appointed to the seat in 2018 and won reelection, announced her retirement plans in a February post on X (formerly Twitter). “This job has been the honor of a lifetime,” Smith said in a video. “This decision is not political—it’s personal. After two decades in public service, I’m ready to spend more time with my family.”
Omar’s choice not to run has drawn renewed attention to other high-profile progressives, especially her fellow “Squad” member, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York. Political speculation is swirling that AOC could mount a primary challenge against Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.
A recent Data for Progress poll has intensified the chatter: in a hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary, Ocasio-Cortez leads Schumer by 19 points—55% to 36%—among likely Democratic voters in New York. The poll, conducted March 26–31, underscores a shifting tide within the party’s base.
The numbers are striking: Ocasio-Cortez outperforms Schumer across nearly every demographic, including white, Black, and Latino voters, as well as across age, gender, and education levels. Her support is especially dominant among voters under 45, where she holds a commanding 50-point lead. Schumer’s only edge comes from self-identified moderates.
The same survey revealed deeper discontent among Democrats: 84% of respondents said party leaders aren’t doing enough to oppose Trump and the MAGA movement. That frustration may explain why Schumer has the highest disapproval rating among all Democratic figures tested, while Ocasio-Cortez ranks among the most popular—trailing only Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, and Elizabeth Warren.
Biographical summaries shown to poll participants boosted both candidates’ favorability, but AOC’s jumped from +59 to +69, maintaining her lead. Schumer saw a smaller bump, from +26 to +47, not enough to close the gap.
At a time of deep internal debate within the Democratic Party, Omar’s reelection bid, Smith’s retirement, and Ocasio-Cortez’s rising profile paint a clear picture: the party’s progressive wing isn’t just holding ground—it’s gaining momentum.
