New report predicts US is heading for a recession after Trump’s tariffs cause markets to crash

President Donald Trump has been warned he could be leading America into decline

As harsh tariffs on Mexico and Canada come into effect today (March 4), a new report claims President Donald Trump’s could plunge the country into recession.

Trump’s Tariffs Trigger Market Chaos, Risking U.S. Recession

As of today (March 4), the United States has officially imposed harsh tariffs on Mexico and Canada, sparking fears of an economic downturn. A new report warns that President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies could push the country into a recession.

Both neighboring nations now face a hefty 25% tax on all imports into the U.S., while China’s initial 10% tariff has been doubled in response to its own retaliatory measures. This escalating trade war is already taking a toll: the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model predicts a dramatic 2.8% decline in GDP growth for Q1 2025—a sharp reversal from the 3.9% growth forecast just a month ago.

A recession looms if the U.S. economy contracts for two consecutive quarters.

Meanwhile, the global stock markets plummeted in reaction to the tariffs. The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all nosedived, sending shockwaves through investors. This turmoil comes on the heels of an executive order signed by Trump shortly after reclaiming the presidency, setting the stage for a volatile economic landscape.

President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (Qilai Shen/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Trump Declares ‘National Emergency’ Over Trade, Immigration, and Security

President Donald Trump has escalated his rhetoric, branding Canada, Mexico, and China as “extraordinary threats” to the United States. Citing concerns over the influx of “illegal aliens and drugs”, he has even declared the situation a national emergency.

The White House doubled down on its stance against China, stating:

“In response to China’s intellectual property theft, forced technology transfer, and other unreasonable behavior, President Trump acted with conviction to impose tariffs on imports from China, using that leverage to reach a historic bilateral economic agreement.”

Trump’s hardline approach can be traced back to a speech he delivered at the House GOP retreat in Florida late last month, where he laid out his vision for reshaping U.S. trade policy and national security. His latest actions signal a new era of economic and diplomatic tension, with global markets already feeling the impact.

The high tariffs on Mexico, China and Canada come after Trump signed an executive order in January (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Trump Pushes for Tariffs Over Taxes—But at What Cost?

At the House GOP retreat in Florida last month, President Trump vowed to eliminate federal income taxes, replacing them with tariffs on foreign nations. So far, he’s taken steps to make that vision a reality—first with China and, as of today (March 4), with Canada and Mexico now facing steep trade levies on their exports to the U.S.

But why did developed nations move away from tariffs in the first place?

Tariffs are essentially taxes on foreign goods, making imports more expensive and ultimately raising prices for American consumers. Following World War II, most advanced economies abandoned heavy tariffs because they were shown to reduce trade, increase costs for consumers, and provoke retaliation from other nations—exactly what we’re seeing now, as China strikes back with its own countermeasures.

According to the Council on Foreign Relations, history shows that protectionist policies often come at a steep economic price. With tensions escalating, the question remains: Will Trump’s tariff-driven strategy boost the economy, or push it into deeper turmoil?