Scientists are sounding a stark warning that the Pacific Northwest’s most active volcano could erupt as soon as tomorrow.
Sitting over 4,900 feet beneath the surface of the Pacific Ocean, and about 300 miles off the Oregon coast, the Axial Seamount is a mile-wide underwater volcano with immense potential for disaster.
Recent findings by researchers from the National Science Foundation’s Ocean Observatories Initiative reveal that magma pushing its way to the surface has caused a sharp rise in earthquakes beneath the seamount.
Marine geophysicist William Wilcock, a lecturer at the University of Washington, states that the seafloor has swollen back to its pre-eruption state from 2015, signaling the accumulation of dangerously hot magma beneath.
This bulging pressure could be a precursor to an eruption that’s rapidly approaching.
Scientists are warning that the Pacific Northwest’s most active volcano, Axial Seamount, could erupt as early as tomorrow.
Situated more than 4,900 feet below the Pacific Ocean’s surface and 300 miles off Oregon’s coast, Axial Seamount is a massive mile-wide underwater volcano that’s been causing increasing seismic activity. Recent research from the National Science Foundation’s Ocean Observatories Initiative has shown that magma rising to the surface has led to a surge in earthquakes beneath the seamount.
Marine geophysicist William Wilcock from the University of Washington explains, “Right now, we’re seeing a couple hundred earthquakes a day, but that’s still far less than the activity before the 2015 eruption. It could erupt tomorrow, but predicting it is nearly impossible.”
Axial Seamount’s last eruption in 2015 caused nearly 8,000 earthquakes, triggered 400-foot-thick lava flows, and dropped the ocean floor by almost eight feet. The seismic activity has been ramping up recently, with a significant spike on April 13, and daily earthquakes have steadily increased since May 6.
While experts suggest there’s no imminent danger to coastal towns on the West Coast, as Axial Seamount is too deep and distant to affect land-based seismic activity, the number of underwater earthquakes will likely soar dramatically when the volcano erupts. Current daily earthquake numbers could leap to 10,000 within 24 hours.
Mike Poland, a scientist at the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, calls Axial Seamount “the best-monitored submarine volcano in the world,” expressing enthusiasm about the scientific opportunity it presents, despite the fact that it doesn’t pose a direct threat. “When it erupts, it will resemble a Hawaiian lava flow—steady and calm, with lava slowly pouring out of the caldera and flowing across the seafloor.”
Axial Seamount, a young shield volcano located along the Juan de Fuca Ridge between Oregon and Alaska, has erupted multiple times in the past three decades. With three eruptions since 1998, it’s considered the most active volcano in the Pacific Northwest. Geophysicist William Chadwick from Oregon State University has been monitoring the volcano since November 2024 and notes that the seafloor is swelling again to levels seen before the 2015 eruption, making the 2025 eruption window increasingly likely.
Chadwick’s team, who predicted the 2015 eruption based on similar signs, has forecasted a potential eruption between now and the end of 2025. They’ve observed a surge in seismic activity, with swarms of earthquakes exceeding 500 per day, which signals magma creeping toward the surface.
Wilcock notes that a significant rise in earthquake frequency around the volcano would be the first clear indication that an eruption is imminent. “Once that peak occurs, magma will reach the surface within an hour,” Wilcock said. The eruption itself is expected to continue slowly for about a month, though seismic activity will subside in the days following.
For Wilcock and his team, this upcoming eruption offers a unique research opportunity. Equipped with one of the world’s largest underwater observatories, they plan to monitor the eruption in real-time with a vast array of advanced sensors.
While Axial Seamount’s eruption poses no immediate threat to human settlements, the knowledge gained from studying this relatively safe underwater volcano will help scientists refine their ability to predict eruptions from more dangerous volcanoes around the world. Take, for example, the catastrophic eruption of the Hunga underwater volcano in Tonga in January 2022, which caused a tsunami that wreaked havoc across multiple continents, resulting in $90 billion in damages.
Though the West Coast won’t face such a danger from Axial Seamount, its eruption will provide invaluable data, contributing to a better understanding of how powerful underwater volcanoes function.
